The Markets
Like riders on a giga coaster, investors experienced fear and exhilaration during the second quarter of 2025.
From April through June, investors rode markets up and down, banking through twists of news and events that had market moving potential. They swooped through the uncertain impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation; the implications of a U.S. Treasury downgrade; the effects of fiscal policy changes in the Big Beautiful Bill; and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.1 Here are some highlights from the quarter:
- Tariff turmoil. In early April, President Trump announced tariffs on a much larger scale than anyone expected, startling investors and raising concerns about economic growth and price inflation, reported Sarah Hansen of Morningstar.2 The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, shot up to 60.3 (Any reading above 30 signals a high level of fear, risk, and anticipated volatility.)4 As the VIX rose, the stock market fell.
“The Dow shed 2,000 points in a day for the fourth time in the index’s history. All told, U.S. stocks shed some $6.6 trillion in market cap in the past two days based on preliminary figures…That’s the largest two-day market cap slide for U.S. listed stocks on record,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.5
- A fast recovery. President Trump delayed immediate action on tariffs, opening the door to trade negotiations. His actions reassured investors, and U.S. stocks climbed to new highs. Through last week, “The S&P 500 is up 26 [percent] from the selloff low on April 8, while the Nasdaq has surged 34.9 [percent], as the worries, from supersized tariffs to the U.S.’s artificial-intelligence dominance, have slowly faded,” reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.6
International stocks performed even better than U.S. stocks did. “European stocks, a thoroughly unloved asset class in January, have trounced the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points in dollar terms, the biggest outperformance since 2006…After underperforming the US market every year since 2017, developing-country equities are finally winning, helped by a boom in [artificial intelligence] companies from Taiwan, South Korea and China,” reported Alice Gledhill, Malavika Kaur Makol and Sagarika Jaisinghani of Bloomberg.7
- Excellent earnings growth. During earnings season, companies let investors know how they performed in the previous quarter. Collectively, companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index reported earnings growth of 12.9 percent for the first quarter of 2025. It was the second consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, reported John Butters of FactSet. (Earnings are a measure of profitability.)8
Tariffs were the hot topic on earnings calls. They were mentioned by 427 S&P 500 companies.7 Some companies were concerned about tariffs. Some were not. The head of a financial firm told Sabrina Escobar of Barron’s, “The simple truth today is that we don’t yet know where trade policy will settle, nor do we know what the actual transmission effects will be on the real economy.”9
- The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged. Despite significant pressure from the administration to stimulate the economy by lowering rates, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged. At the end of the quarter, inflation was near the Fed’s two percent target and unemployment remained low. Both suggest the economy remains resilient.10
Major U.S. stock indexes continued to move higher last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing the week at record highs.11 Yields onU.S. Treasuries moved higher last week after a stronger-than-expected employment report lowered expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate in July, reported Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, and Sawdah Bhaimiya of CNBC.12,13
Data as of 7/3/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 1.7% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 17.9% | 14.6% | 11.7% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.3 | 15.9 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.4 | N/A | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.8 | 27.6 | 41.1 | 22.6 | 13.5 | 11.1 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 0.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | -2.6 | 9.3 | 0.4 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
PATRIOTIC FEELINGS. Last week, Americans celebrated the Fourth of July. Independence Day has been a national holiday since 1941, but the tradition began long before that. Americans have been celebrating Independence Day since “the 18th century and the American Revolution. On July 2nd, 1776, the Continental Congress voted in favor of independence, and two days later delegates from the 13 colonies adopted the Declaration of Independence, a historic document drafted by Thomas Jefferson. From 1776 to the present day, July 4th has been celebrated as the birth of American independence, with festivities ranging from fireworks, parades and concerts to more casual family gatherings and barbecues,” according to History.com.14
A recent survey asked Americans about the Fourth of July, patriotism and the American Dream. Here’s what they said:15
| The 4th of July is a time for fun and relaxation: | 63 percent |
| I am patriotic: | 71 percent |
| I believe other Americans are patriotic: | 74 percent |
| I am proud to be an American: | 68 percent |
| Voting is a duty: | 21 percent |
| Voting is a right: | 31 percent |
| The American Dream is attainable for me: | 36 percent |
| The American Dream is attainable for others: | 32 percent |
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“This is your democracy. Make it. Protect it. Pass it on.”16
― Thurgood Marshall, Former Supreme Court Justice
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-rate-cuts-d0252a07?mod=Searchresults or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-Stocks-Are-Flying-the-Dollar-is-Falling%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.morningstar.com/markets/13-charts-q2s-major-market-rebound
3 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cboe-volatility-index-vix-measured-153231819.html
4 https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/ [Video 1:15]
5 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-040425 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-Nasdaq-Enters-Bear-Market%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-hits-record-highs-tax-bill-jobs-6f818d48? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-Stocks-Hit-Record-Hights%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-30/rollercoaster-first-half-is-ending-with-stocks-at-records or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Bloomberg-Rollercoaster-First-Half-Is-Ending%20-%207.pdf
8 https://insight.factset.com/earnings-insight-infographic-q1-2025-by-the-numbers
9 https://www.barrons.com/articles/tariffs-earnings-calls-stock-ccab0e3b or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-CEOs-Are-Saying-These-2-Ominous%20-%209.pdf
10 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250618a.htm
11 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/07-07-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%2011.pdf
13 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/us-treasury-yields-investors-await-junes-big-jobs-report-.html
14 https://www.history.com/articles/july-4th
15 https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/July_Fourth_poll_results.pdf 16https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2024/06/19/patriotic-quotes-america-usa/74070993007/#
The Markets
Major U.S. stock indexes raced to new highs last week.
In a remarkable recovery from April’s double-digit downturn, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index raced to a new record high last week, and so did the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq). Key drivers behind the ascent included:
Investor optimism. Last week, the “Bull and Bear” investor sentiment indicator rose to its highest level since last November, reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s. Easing of tensions in the Middle East lifted investor optimism. As the region settled, oil prices moved lower, quelling concerns that rising oil prices would push inflation higher.1
Consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index improved 16 percent in June, although it remained 18 percent below December’s reading. Expectations for personal finances and business conditions improved. However, “consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. 2
Muted inflation. It was widely expected that higher tariffs would mean higher inflation. So far, that hasn’t been the case. In May, U.S. government revenue from tariffs surged to a record high, reported Jarrell Dillard of Bloomberg,3 and consumer prices remained relatively steady. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7 percent year over year.4 That was slightly above expectations, reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.5
Trade optimism. While concerns remain about the impact of tariffs on inflation, investors gained confidence that the outlook for trade is improving. “Trump administration officials have recently softened the focus on the self-imposed July 9 deadline for deals. On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [said] he hoped to have trade wrapped up by Labor Day and described the latest pact with China as de-escalatory,” reported Reshma Kapadia and Elsa Ohlen of Barron’s.6
While current market momentum is impressive, “Some market watchers are cautioning that valuations are looking lofty, and that the S&P 500 would need an earnings boom or drastic Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to justify current levels,” reported Natalia Kniazhevich of Bloomberg.7
U.S. stocks faltered on Friday after an announcement that trade negotiations with Canada would not take place, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still finished the week at record highs.8 Yields onlonger maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.9
Data as of 6/27/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 3.4% | 5.0% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 15.1% | 11.6% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 3.0 | 15.5 | 14.9 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -2.9 | 25.3 | 40.8 | 21.5 | 13.1 | 10.8 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -3.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | -5.5 | 9.9 | 0.2 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
HOW AFFORDABLE ARE HOMES IN THE UNITED STATES? In the United States, homes are less affordable than they’ve been in a while. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor tracks whether households earning a median income can afford a median-priced home. The Fed calculates that a home is affordable when the annual cost of owning it is less than 30 percent of a household’s annual income.10
In April 2025 (the most recent data available), a median-priced home was out of reach for a median-income household. 10
By the Fed’s calculations, a median-income household would need to spend 46 percent of its annual pay to own a median-priced home. To afford the home, the household would need annual income of about $123,000, an increase of about 55 percent.10 Here are the Fed numbers from April:
| Median income (Median means one half of households earn more, and one half earn less): | $79,409 |
| Median home price (One half of homes are priced higher, and one half are priced lower): | $392,500 |
| Rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage: | 6.7 percent |
| Median monthly payment (includes principal, interest, taxes, homeowners’ insurance, and private mortgage insurance): | $3,069 |
| Percent of pay needed to meet annual cost of homeownership: | 46 percent |
Homeowners’ insurance is becoming more expensive
In some regions of the U.S., homeowners’ insurance is becoming more costly – and harder to acquire. “Homeowners in communities affected by substantial weather events are paying far more than those elsewhere. From 2018 to 2022, consumers living in the 20 percent of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses to buildings from climate-related perils paid…82 percent more than those in the 20 percent lowest climate-risk zip codes,” reported the U.S. Department of the Treasury.11
How are younger people buying homes?
Younger Americans are employing a variety of strategies to make a home purchase possible. According to a survey by a leading home sale site, aspiring Gen Z and Millennial homebuyers are:
- Working two jobs (39%),
- Receiving cash gifts from family (36%),
- Taking money from retirement plans early (22%),
- Spending an inheritance (16%), or
- Living with parents/family members to save money (13%).12
If you’re interested in helping a loved one with a home purchase, please get in touch. We can help discuss the options.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Listen to the mustn’ts, child. Listen to the don’ts. Listen to the shouldn’ts, the impossibles, the won’ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me…Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”13
― Shel Silverstein, Author
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-rally-earnings-jobs-manufacturing-c98862f5 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Barrons-Stocks-Have-Powered-Past%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-11/us-tariff-revenue-hits-fresh-record-helping-shrink-may-deficit or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Bloomerg-Us-Tariff-Revenue-Hits-Fresh%20-%203.pdf
4 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/pi0525.pdf [Table 7]
5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-pce-fed-rates-95c66d65 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Barrons-Inflation-Spending-Data-Leave%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-china-trade-deal-trump-lutnick-tariffs-0cab501a or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Barrons-Trump-Ends-Talks-with-Canada%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-27/s-p-500-rally-faces-key-test-as-profit-engine-is-seen-sputtering or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Bloomberg-S&P-500-Rally-Faces-Key-Test%20-%207.pdf
8 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-062725?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1
10 https://www.atlantafed.org/research/data-and-tools/home-ownership-affordability-monitor [Affordability chart and Affordability Gap chart tabs] or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-30-25-Federal-Reserve-Bank-Atlanta-Home-Affordabilty%20-%2010.pdf
11 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2791
12 https://www.redfin.com/news/gen-z-millennial-down-payment-family-help/
The Markets
Investors are taking it all in stride.
As Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes last week, stock markets in the United States remained relatively steady, reported Michael Msika and Phil Serafino of Bloomberg.1
“On June 13th, as the bombs began to fly, S&P 500 futures fell by 1.6 [percent]. But as the hours passed, the stock market steadily climbed. The index has now recovered to around 6,000, a hair’s breadth from an all-time high…consider the long list of recent events that at first seemed to have epoch-making potential, only to fizzle out,” reported The Economist.2
This is often the case with geopolitical events.
Any time conflict flares, it can be difficult to comprehend the potentially world-changing outcomes, much less factor them into stock prices. As a result, many investors ignore geopolitical upheaval.
The Economist emphasized this point when it reported that the Israel-Iran conflict joined a “long list of recent events that at first seemed to have epoch-making potential, only to fizzle out…Examples include China’s anti-lockdown protests, the Wagner Group’s rebellion in Russia and skirmishes between India and Pakistan”. 2
So, what has investors’ attention?
One answer is economic growth and the performance of publicly traded companies. “The momentum of markets can be relentless. Shares tend to grind higher over time as consumers spend, entrepreneurs innovate and companies grow. Earnings per share for American firms have risen by 250 [percent] or so over the past 15 years. For any event to have a meaningful impact, at least for longer than a few days, it must harm such dynamism.”2
Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the U.S. economy remains strong. During a press conference, he stated, “Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low. The labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal, but it has been running somewhat above our two percent longer-run objective.”3
In 2025, diversification has been a sound strategy for managing the uncertainty of geopolitics, reported David Rovella of Bloomberg.
“Amid the geopolitical and economic maelstroms of 2025, diversified investors may end up remembering the first six months for something altogether less dangerous or dramatic…the year has still managed to see the strongest stretch of synchronized market gains in years. Rather than spelling a slow-motion disaster for bulls, months of whiplash across equities, fixed income and commodities have rewarded strategic indifference.”4
Major U.S. stock indexes finished last week lower.5 Yields onlonger maturities of U.S. Treasuries also moved lower over the week.6
Data as of 6/20/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -0.2% | 1.5% | 9.0% | 16.6% | 13.9% | 10.9% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -1.0 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.4 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Gold (per ounce) | -2.0 | 29.0 | 43.2 | 22.4 | 13.8 | 11.0 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | -5.5 | 10.5 | 0.7 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT IS THE FEDERAL RESERVE? The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. It is made up of twelve district banks that are supervised by a Board of Governors. Basically, the Fed oversees banks, protects consumers, and keeps our financial system stable.7
It’s also responsible for keeping the U.S. economy healthy by making sure:
- People are working (maximizing employment) and
- Price increases are low (stabilizing inflation).7
How does the Fed support the economy?
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times each year to decide whether – and how – the Fed should influence the economy.7
For example, when prices rise rapidly, the FOMC lifts the federal funds rate. As the federal funds rate move higher, banks raise the rates they charge for loans and credit cards, and people begin to spend less. Demand for goods slows, and prices move lower.8
When the federal funds rate increases, bond rates perk up, too, which can be challenging for investors who own bonds with lower interest rates. That’s because there is an inverse relationship between bond prices and bond rates. When rates rise the value of bonds with lower rates declines. On the other hand, investors have an opportunity to purchase new bonds that deliver a higher level of income, explained Nick Lioudis on Investopedia.9
In contrast, if the economy shows signs of weakness – rising unemployment, slowing economic growth, flagging consumer confidence – the FOMC may lower the federal funds rate to stimulate economic growth. When the federal funds rate drops, so do the rates banks charge on loans and credit cards, making it cheaper for people and companies to borrow. Usually, as spending increases, economic growth accelerates.
A falling federal funds rate also means the rates on newly issued bonds will be lower. Typically, that makes bonds with higher rates more valuable.9
The June FOMC meeting
Last week, the FOMC met andleft the federal funds rate unchanged. The decision had little effect on markets because investors didn’t expect the Fed to change rates. What interested investors was the Fed’s outlook for 2025, reported Jeff Cox of CNBC.10
The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections showed that FOMC members expect employment to remain relatively steady, inflation to rise, and economic growth to slow. In addition, collectively FOMC members expect two rate cuts by the end of the year.11
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Because financially capable consumers ultimately contribute to a stable economic and financial system as well as improve their own financial situations, it’s clear that the Federal Reserve has a significant stake in financial education.”12
– Ben Bernanke, Former Federal Reserve Chair
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-20/stock-bulls-tell-compelling-story-as-europe-trounces-us or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-23-25-Bloomberg-Stock-Bulls-Tell-Compelling-Story%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/18/investors-ignore-world-changing-news-rightly or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-23-25-Economist-Investors-Ignore-World-Changing-News%20-%202.pdf
3 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm [Video, first minute]
4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-20/in-a-global-storm-markets-reward-indifference-evening-briefing-americas or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-23-25-Bloomberg-In-a-Global-Storm%20-%204.pdf
5 https://www.barrons.com/market-data or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/06-23-25-Barrons-DJIA-S&P%20-%205.pdf
7 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fedexplained/who-we-are.htm
9 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/why-interest-rates-have-inverse-relationship-bond-prices/
10 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/fed-rate-decision-june-2025-.html
11 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250618.pdf
12 https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/ben_bernanke_704778?src=t_federal_reserve