The Markets
The interest rate outlook shifted.
Last week, central banks around the globe met to set policy rates. While most chose to leave rates unchanged, many expressed concern about the potential economic consequences of the War in Iran, reported Holly Ellyatt of CNBC.1
“Central bankers in Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan opted to stay on the sidelines, as did their counterparts in the U.S., Canada, the U.K. and Europe. The notable exception was Australia, where policymakers narrowly voted to raise rates…,” reported Jihye Lee and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa in Morningstar News.2
The Federal Reserve held rates steady
In the United States, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rate-setting body, kept the federal funds rate unchanged.3 In addition, the FOMC summary of economic projections indicated Fed officials expect to see faster economic growth and higher inflation in 2026.4 Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s described the Fed’s current challenge:
“One rate cut technically remains on the table this year. But the bar to deliver it is higher. The Fed is caught between an inflation overshoot it can’t dismiss, an oil shock it can’t predict, a labor market on a knife’s edge, and a leadership transition tangled in legal uncertainty,” reported Goodkind.3
At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated he plans to remain on the Fed board until a new Chair is confirmed and the current investigation of the Fed by the Department of Justice is finished.5
Investor optimism faded
Investors considered the actions and rhetoric of global central banks and seemed to settle on the idea that policy rates could move higher this year. In response, bond yields began to rise.6
“Global bond markets extended one of their biggest selloffs in a year on Friday, taking benchmark Treasury bonds sharply higher and weighing on stocks in markets around the world, with investors ripping up bets on central bank interest rate cuts as war in the Middle East shows no signs of ending,” reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s.6
Last week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower,7 while yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher.8
Data as of 3/20/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -1.9% | -5.0% | 14.9% | 18.1% | 10.6% | 12.2% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -1.6 | 0.2 | 19.3 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 5.9 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.4 | N/A | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | -9.6 | 6.2 | 50.1 | 32.1 | 21.5 | 14.0 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -0.6 | 22.3 | 26.8 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 5.2 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GENERATIVE AI AND AGENTIC AI? Many Americans rely on artificial intelligence (AI) tools every day, sometimes without realizing they’re doing so. Voice-activated home assistants, for example, are useful for checking the weather, setting reminders, or listening to music. Voice assistants are just one form of AI. Over the past few years, two more powerful approaches have emerged that are reshaping how we work: generative (gen) AI and agentic AI.
Gen AI: Responds to prompts
Gen AI chatbots have become widely available. This type of AI is reactive and task-oriented, helping people conduct research, draft emails, create images, write music, and code websites, reported Adam Zewe of MIT News. Gen AI systems: 9
- Recognize patterns and rely on that knowledge to predict what comes next.
- Respond to user prompts, which affect the quality of output.
One drawback is that AI chatbots can hallucinate, meaning they confidently generate inaccurate answers. When using gen AI, human guidance and oversight are required to ensure the quality of the end product.9
AI agent: Acts on its own
Last year, agentic AI became more prevalent. Agentic AI systems are partially or fully autonomous, meaning they perceive, reason, and act without human supervision, according to Beth Stackpole of MIT’s Ideas Made to Matter.10 AI agents are:
- Integrated with software systems to complete complex tasks independently, and
- Contained by robust strategy and risk management frameworks.
There are risks and challenges to agentic AI. Stackpole cautioned that organizations implementing these tools may find them to be unreliable or prone to unethical behavior. There are also cybersecurity and accountability issues.10
What do we want AI to do?
Recently, Bloomberg’s Sommer Saadi and Stephanie Flanders spoke with Nobel Prize–winning economist Daron Acemoglu, who believes that “the greatest economic benefits would come from ‘pro-worker AI’ that enhances human capabilities, enabling workers to perform more complex and valuable tasks. But current business incentives, market structures and policy frameworks favor labor replacement.”11
As AI continues to evolve, the stakes of getting it right are becoming considerably higher. The question is no longer how AI can help us work smarter; it’s how we ensure these tools serve people. Whether the future belongs to pro-worker AI or labor-replacing automation will depend less on the technology and more on the choices organizations, policymakers, and workers make today.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Even the darkest night will end and the sun will rise.”12
― Victor Hugo, Author
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/19/ecb-boe-swiss-national-bank-riksbank-interest-rate-decisions.html
3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/powell-federal-reserve-interest-rates-e5af6407? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-23-26-Barrons-Higher-Oil-Higher-Inflation%20-%203.pdf
4 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20260318.pdf
5 https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260318.pdf [Transcript]
6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasuries-extend-slump-likelihood-of-fed-rate-cuts-fades-610329a2? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-23-26-Barrons-Treasuries-Extend-Slump%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-23-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
9 https://news.mit.edu/2023/explained-generative-ai-1109
10 https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/agentic-ai-explained
11 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-18/podcast-ai-is-being-built-to-replace-you-not-help-you or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-23-26-Bloomberg-AI-Is-Being-Built-to-Replace-You%2011.pdf
12 https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/3208463-les-mis-rables
The Markets
Stagflation worries rise.
Over the past couple of weeks, the term stagflation has been popping up a lot.1 The United States experienced stagflation, which is a combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and high unemployment, during the 1970s. The possibility of another round of stagflation is concerning because it’s difficult to fix, explained Denny Center Student Fellow Ian Stubbs at Georgetown Law.2
Oil shocks and stagflation
In the 1970s, two oil shocks occurred as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut oil production and sharply curtailed exports, reported Greg Myre of NPR.3
The shortages pushed inflation higher, increasing the costs of goods and services. The United States economy moved into recession and unemployment rose. Normally, inflation moves lower during recessions, but at that time, prices moved higher alongside the price of oil. By 1979, inflation was 9 percent a year. The term “stagflation” was used to describe the combination of high inflation and slow economic growth, according to Bill Medley of the Federal Reserve (Fed).4
The cure is as bad as the affliction
During the 1970s, the U.S. government and the Fed tried a variety of tactics to end stagflation. Nothing worked. In the late 1970s, Paul Volcker was appointed to chair the Federal Reserve. Under his leadership, the central bank took a different approach. It raised the federal funds rate to “a record high of 20 percent in late 1980. Inflation peaked at 11.6 percent in March of the same year,” reported Medley.4
In October 1981, some U.S. homebuyers paid a mortgage rate of 18.63 percent, reported Erika Giovanetti of U.S. News & World Report.5
Neither the American people nor the government was happy, and there were many protests.However, “inflation began to decline, falling to 6.1 percent in early 1982 and then to 3.7 percent in the following year. The unemployment rate hit a peak of 10.8 percent in late 1982 before beginning a steady decline.”4
Are we headed into stagflation?
Last week, as oil prices spiked and fell and spiked again, there was discussion about whether the United States is, once more, facing the threat of stagflation. Jeff Cox of CNBC explained:
“For most economists and Wall Street strategists, the primary factor this time is duration. If the Iran situation can be resolved in a few weeks, as President Donald Trump has promised, any stagflationary shock likely will be muted.”6
Last week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower,7 while yields on U.S. Treasuries with longer maturities moved higher.8
Data as of 3/13/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -1.6% | -3.1% | 20.1% | 19.8% | 10.8% | 12.6% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -2.2 | 1.8 | 24.4 | 13.9 | 4.6 | 6.2 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | -1.3 | 17.5 | 68.9 | 38.2 | 24.1 | 15.1 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 2.6 | 23.0 | 28.6 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.4 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
VOLATILITY IS UNCOMFORTABLE BUT NOT UNEXPECTED. If you’ve ever walked down a city street on a gusty day, you may have been beset by a whirlwind of dirt and debris that stops you in your tracks. The haze and flying grit make it hard to see where you’re going. But if you’re patient and wait it out, the wind dies down, and you can continue on your way.
Recently, investors have been engulfed in a whirlwind of market volatility. News about wars, the economy, artificial intelligence (AI), and tariffs have created tremendous uncertainty – and lots of volatility. While short-term ups and downs are quite uncomfortable, they’re not unexpected when investing. See what you know about market volatility and investing by taking this brief quiz.
- When stock prices are gyrating and you’re feeling anxious, which of the following could prove to be most valuable to you as an investor?
- A. A financial news app
- B. A popular pundit’s prediction about where markets will go next
- C. A financial plan that aligns with your short- and long-term financial goals
- D. A friend who has lots of stories about investment successes
- People are not always perfectly rational. Adam Hayes of Investopedia reports that, sometimes, investors give more weight to recent events than they should. As a result, they make short-term decisions – like selling stocks at a low during a period of market volatility – that can negatively affect their long-term financial plans.9 What is this type of decision-making behavior called?
- A. Hindsight bias
- B. Recency bias
- C. Overconfidence
- D. Herd behavior
- If an investor’s long-term goals have not changed, what should they do during periods of market volatility?
- A. Sell everything and wait for markets to calm down
- B. Check stock prices every three to four hours
- C. Talk with a financial professional and reach a thoughtful decision about whether to take any action
- D. Try to time the market by buying and selling at just the right moments
- A portfolio is well diversified when it includes a wide variety of investments (such as stocks, bonds, cash, and other types of assets) that respond differently to market conditions, reported Troy Segal of Investopedia. In addition, portfolios may be diversified by geographic region, industry, and other factors.10 Why is it important to have a well-diversified portfolio?
- A. Diversification can help manage portfolio risk
- B. Diversification guarantees higher returns
- C. Diversification eliminates all losses
- D. Diversification ensures investors outperform the market
During periods of market volatility, it’s important to remember that we’ve seen the Standard & Poor’s 500 and other stock indexes decline before. Historically, they’ve recovered and moved higher. During periods of volatility and market downturns, a prudent approach is to remain patient, stay disciplined, and focus on your long-term goals.
Answers:
- C. During periods of volatility, having a financial plan can help investors stay focused on long-term goals and avoid emotional decision-making, according to research conducted by Margaretha Dasinapa of Airlangga University. 11
- B.Recency bias causes people to place too much emphasis on recent events. As a result, they overestimate the likelihood that those events will continue or occur again.9
- C. Philip Straehl of Morningstar pointed out that many investors like to meet with their financial professionals during periods of market volatility to discuss whether any action is necessary.12
- A. Diversification can help manage portfolio risk. It does not guarantee higher returns, eliminate losses, or ensure investors outperform the market.10
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Fear is often our immediate response to uncertainty. There’s nothing wrong with experiencing fear. The key is not to get stuck in it.”13
― Gabrielle Bernstein, Author
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 Google search conducted March 13, 2026 (See pdf) https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-16-26-Google-Search%20-%201.pdf
4 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/anti-inflation-measures
5 https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/articles/historical-mortgage-rates
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-16-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
9 https://www.investopedia.com/recency-availability-bias-5206686
10 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diversification.asp
13 https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/gabrielle_bernstein_899064
The Markets
Energy disruptions, rising prices, and a weak jobs report cloud the economic outlook.
It would take a lot more space than we have here to discuss everything that happened last week and the many ways these events may affect financial markets and the economy. So, we are going to focus on energy, inflation, and employment.
Energy: Strait to a standstill
The Strait of Hormuz is in the news. As we learned during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), the narrow passage is a vulnerable point in the supply chain for oil.
“The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes. Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran. Most of that oil goes to Asia,” reported Jon Gambrell and Mae Anderson of AP.1
In the 1980s, both Iran and Iraq attacked noncombatant tankers. The toll on shipping was severe. According to the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas in Austin, about 23 percent of petroleum tankers, 39 percent of bulk carriers, and 34 percent of freighters that were attacked sank or were declared a constructive total loss (CTL).2
Today, vessel owners remain wary of the risks of traveling through the Straits. As a result, the current conflict in Iran has brought travel through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill. “More than 200 tankers are idling on both sides of the strait, leaving Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar unable to transport crude oil and petroleum products,” reported Ben Cahill in Barron’s. “3
Inflation: Oil and gas prices rising
In recent months, lower gasoline prices have helped keep U.S. inflation low.4 However, “The attack on Iran is unraveling that. Crude prices have soared, ramping up inflation concerns and complicating the Fed’s path to cutting interest rates again. Treasury yields have jumped as a result, counter to the administration’s stated wish for lower borrowing costs,” reported Phil Serafino of Bloomberg.5 Last week, the benchmark price for crude oil rose to a two-year high, reported Laura Sanicola, Alex Kozul-Wright, and Anita Hamilton of Barron’s.6
Natural gas prices are increasing, too.
Qatar’s state-owned oil and gas company is one of the world’s largest producers of liquified natural gas (LNG). Last week, it stopped “production at the world’s largest export facility after it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack,” reported Elena Mazneva, Stephen Stapczynski, and Salma El Wardany of Bloomberg. “While Asian countries buy most of the LNG shipped from the Middle East, a disruption will increase competition for alternative supplies and push up prices worldwide.”7
In addition, Qatar offered “a total of 10 liquefied natural gas tankers that it controls for lease, as the country’s massive export facility in the Persian Gulf remains shut due to the ongoing war in the Middle East,” reported Stephen Stapczynski and Ruth Liao of Bloomberg.8
Rising energy prices and higher inflation have the potential to disrupt the global economy. In the United States, rising energy costs could affect:
- Individuals as inflation moves higher, interest rates rise, and the cost of borrowing increases.
- Businesses as the cost of producing goods and delivering services grows and borrowing costs increase.
- Government as interest on the national debt increases along with interest rates. The United States national debt stands at about “$33 trillion, or more than $250,000 per household,” reported Jack Hough of Barron’s.9
Employment: A lot fewer jobs than expected for February
Last Friday, the jobs report blindsided markets. Economists had expected 60,000 new jobs in February. Instead, the economy lost 92,000, reported Barron’s, and the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.10,11
“The decline…was largely due to one-time factors such as striking health-care workers, freezing temperatures, and benchmark methodology revisions—all of which cloud the signal about underlying labor conditions. But the sharp job losses also laid bare the fact that there has been little hiring across industries nationwide, and February continued this trend. Only two sectors added jobs last month,” reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s.11
It’s too early to know whether these numbers will be revised favorably over the coming months.
Last week, stock and bond markets were volatile as investors tried to make sense of the multitude of factors affecting financial markets. Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week lower.12 The yield on all but the shortest maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.13
Data as of 3/6/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -2.0% | -1.5% | 17.5% | 18.5% | 12.0% | 12.9% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -6.4 | 4.1 | 24.2 | 13.5 | 5.6 | 6.6 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | -1.6 | 19.0 | 76.5 | 40.7 | 25.2 | 15.1 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 8.1 | 19.9 | 25.9 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.2 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT IS PRIVATE CREDIT? Private credit is money that investors lend directly to companies outside the public bond market. In broad terms, it’s like lending money to a local restaurant instead of buying a bond from a large national restaurant chain.
When a big chain issues bonds, its financial information is public. The bonds usually have credit ratings to help investors understand risk. These bonds also trade in public markets, so prices are updated regularly, and investors can easily see what the bonds are worth.
With a private loan, the terms are worked out directly between the lender and the company. The details are not public. The lender may get financial updates from time to time, but there is no active market setting a daily price.
Private credit can be riskier than highly rated corporate or government bonds because less information is available to the public and it can be harder to sell the assets quickly if you need your money back. To compensate for those risks, private loans usually offer higher interest payments, reported Eliza Ronalds-Hannon and Silas Brown of Bloomberg.14
The private credit market has grown fast
The private credit market grew quickly in recent years as investors searched for higher returns. According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York cited by Ronalds-Hannon and Brown, the U.S. private credit market more than doubled between 2020 and late 2024 and now accounts for roughly 30 percent of debt issued by below-investment-grade companies, up from 13 percent after the global financial crisis.14
Typically, private credit investors include large institutions, pension funds, insurance companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals, reported Fang Cai and Sharjil Haque in FEDS Notes.15
Recent investor anxiety
In 2024 and 2025, more than 50 companies restructured their debt, reducing returns for lenders, according to Ronalds-Hannon and Brown. Defaults have remained relatively low, but these restructurings raised questions about what could happen if the economy weakens.14
Investor concerns about the strength of private loans also increased after a broad selloff in software stocks. Abby Latour of Morningstar noted that private credit lenders favored software companies for years because of their strong profit margins, loyal customers, and predictable subscription revenue. More recently, concerns that AI may erode those advantages, lowering barriers to entry and enabling customers to build their own software tools, caused lenders to reassess the underlying value of those loans.16
While these developments bear watching, it’s unclear whether current concerns will prove prescient or overblown. Either way, private loans have become a meaningful part of the lending market, and it’s important to understand how they differ from traditional bonds.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”17― Warren Buffett, Oracle of Omaha
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://apnews.com/article/strait-hormuz-iran-energy-war-5b60e82ef2fc68e2b43aa570a32404dd
2 https://www.strausscenter.org/strait-of-hormuz-tanker-war/#:~:text=Lessons%20Learned:,%5Bx%5D
3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/theres-no-escaping-it-the-strait-of-hormuz-must-be-reopened-c78a7416? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Barrons-Theres-No-Escaping-It%20-%203.pdf
4 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm [Table A]
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-03-06/trump-is-roiling-the-markets-he-cares-about-the-most?cmpid=030626 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Bloomberg-Trump-Is-Roiling-the-Markets%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-prices-today-iran-war-b640ce7d? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Barrons-Oil-Prices-Soar-Past%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/european-gas-rallies-more-than-30-as-qatar-halts-lng-production or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Bloomberg-Gs-Prices-Surge-As-Qatar%20-%207.pdf
8 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/qatar-offers-to-lease-lng-tankers-as-top-export-plant-stays-shut or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Bloomberg-Qatar-Offers-To-Lease-LNG%20-%208.pdf
9 https://www.barrons.com/articles/iran-war-stock-market-4d8cbcfb?mod=hp_LEDE_A_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Barrons-What-the-Iran-War%20-%209.pdf
10 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
11 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/february-jobs-report-data-2026-today? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Barrons-February-Payroll-Drop%20-%2011.pdf
12 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%2012.pdf
14 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-02-05/the-pessimist-s-guide-to-the-credit-boom?srnd=phx-markets or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-09-26-Bloomberg-A-Guide-to-the-Fault-Lines%20-%2014.pdf
16 https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/why-ai-worries-about-software-are-hitting-private-credit
17 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/329807-risk-comes-from-not-knowing-what-you-re-doing
The Markets
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the new Industrial Revolution.
Last week, market volatility reflected uncertainty about how artificial intelligence will reshape the economy. Early in the week, a report titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” alarmed investors by describing a hypothetical future where artificial intelligence tools greatly improve productivity, causing white-collar jobs to vanish, and unemployment to rise above 10 percent.1
Innovation and disruption is not new
It’s likely that some types of employment will disappear as AI advances. However, AI is also expected to create new types of employment, just as previous disruptive innovation has done. Kenneth G. Pringle of Barron’s explained:
“That AI technology will come for jobs is certain. The destruction and creation of jobs is a defining characteristic of the Industrial Revolution. Less certain is what kind of new jobs—and how many—will take their place…Think of the automobile industry replacing the horse-and-carriage trade in the first decades of the 20th century, or IT departments supplanting secretarial pools in recent decades…The new jobs can be vastly different in nature, requiring novel skills and perhaps relocation, such as from farm to city in the first Industrial Revolution.”2
The current state of AI
Markets calmed during the week as investors recognized that the pace of AI adoption has been slow. In late 2025, about 37 percent of Americans used generative AI (GenAI) at work, according to Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David Deming of the St. Louis Federal Reserve bank.3
GenAI was introduced just three years ago, so it’s likely to be more widely adopted over time. Adoption may be slow with AI tools gaining users and increasing productivity over an extended period, mirroring the adoption of computers and software.4 That said, AI agents, which arrived last year, have the potential to accelerate change. However, according to Edward Harrison of Bloomberg:
“Gartner expects over 40 [percent] of agentic AI projects to be canceled by 2027. Not only are companies unlikely to make immediate and wrenching company-wide changes, they won’t even be able to extract enough benefits from the projects they have in place any time soon. Just as with the personal computer and Internet revolutions before AI, it will be years before households and companies work out how to get benefits from the new technology.”5
Friday’s employment scare
The calm didn’t last long. On Friday, markets jolted again when a major financial technology company cut 40 percent of its workforce. The company’s founder wrote, “intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.6
Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week lower.7 U.S. Treasuries rallied as yields on many maturities moved lower over the week.8
Data as of 2/27/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -0.4% | 0.5% | 17.4% | 20.0% | 12.0% | 13.5% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.8 | 11.2 | 35.0 | 16.7 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.0 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 3.3 | 20.9 | 81.2 | 42.2 | 25.0 | 15.6 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.7 | 10.9 | 16.7 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 4.8 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT AI? Kevin Warsh, who has been nominated to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed), faces a significant challenge. Along with the other members of the Federal Open Market Committee, he will be responsible for monetary policy and economic stability during a period of enormous innovation. AI tools are likely to change business models and workflows, just as the introduction of the printing press, electricity, the telephone, and the automobile did.See what you know about AI by taking this brief quiz.
- GenAI is best known for helping people:9
- a. Write difficult math equations
- b. Generate new content like text, images, or video
- c. Reach conclusions without any data
- d. Wash cars and bikes
- Which of these products relies on AI?10
- a. Navigation apps
- b. Self-driving cars
- c. Virtual assistants
- d. All of the above
- In late 2024, Gallup asked Americans whether they had used AI-enabled products during the previous week. Thirty-six percent said yes, 50 percent said no, and 14 percent weren’t sure. When survey participants were questioned further, it turned out many were using at least one AI-enabled product without realizing it. What percentage had used AI-enabled products during the previous week?10
- a. 36 percent
- b. 64 percent
- c. 83 percent
- d. 9 percent
- The first AI chatbot was named Eliza. The bot was developed at MIT. When it was given a “Doctor” prompt, it would interact with the user as though it was a therapist and the user was a patient. When was this bot built?11
- a. 1941 to 1944
- b. 1964 to 1967
- c. 2002 to 2005
- d. 2016 to 2020
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“We are going to have to have different ethics for different artificially intelligent machines. You obviously want a different set of ethics for a military artificially intelligent machine or robot than you have for a care-taking robot.”12
― Gray Scott, Futurist Answers: 1) b; 2) d; 3) d; 4) b
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://substack.com/home/post/p-188821754
2 https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-history-lessons-jobs-destroyed-created-cdcd0d71 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-02-26-Barrons-AI-Will-Create-And-Destroy-Jobs%20-%202.pdf
3 https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/state-generative-ai-adoption-2025
4 https://www.computerhistory.org/timeline/computers/
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-02-25/ai-s-disruption-will-prove-beneficial-to-consumers-and-businesses or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-02-26-Bloomberg-AIs-Beneficial-Disruption%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-022726?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-02-26-Barrons-Dow-Drops-520-Points%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/03-02-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generative_artificial_intelligence?
10 https://news.gallup.com/poll/654905/americans-everyday-products-without-realizing.aspx