Blog
The Markets
Sometimes, the road is rough.
In the early 1900s, riding in new-fangled automobiles was a bone-jarring and physically exhausting experience. Roads were unpaved and rutted, jolting passengers relentlessly. Shock absorbers changed that. Working in tandem with the spring suspension, they made the ride a lot smoother. 1,2
A two-part system smooths the ride for investors, too. It includes asset allocation and diversification.
Asset allocation can help smooth portfolio volatility. In recent years, stock markets have experienced significant volatility because of “systematic risks”, which include events that affect the economy and financial markets. Systematic risks can be changes in market sentiment, inflation, government policies, and geopolitics.3
Market- and economy-wide events are felt broadly, although they often have a bigger impact on some assets than others. As a result, one way to manage systematic risk, particularly market risk, is through asset allocation. Dividing investments among asset classes that may respond differently to changes in the economy or market can help reduce the impact of those changes on a portfolio.4
Diversification can make the ride more comfortable, too. Diversification helps investors manage “unsystematic risk”, which is the chance that a company or industry will be affected by poor performance, regulation, new competition, innovation, or something else that affects its potential growth.5
A well-diversified portfolio typically includes more than one type of investment within an asset class.4 For example, an investor might diversify by owning small, mid-sized, and large company stocks across diverse industries inside of the United States and in other countries. If an investor owns 30 stocks and three perform poorly, the impact of the weaker performers on the overall portfolio return is reduced by the stronger performers.
It’s important to remember that a car’s suspension system smooths the ride without altering the road. Asset allocation and diversification are similar. They’re essential aspects of the investment process that help investors manage risk. However, neither asset allocation nor diversification will prevent a market downturn or eliminate losses.
Last week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower,6 and U.S. Treasuries moved higher.7 Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported, “Real risk-free bond yields haven’t been this high in years. Real five-to-10-year yields hadn’t reached current levels since 2023-24. As for 30-year maturities, you would have to go back to the 2008-09 financial crisis to encounter real yields of nearly 3 percent. Real interest rates are what you earn after the bite taken by inflation.”8
Data as of 7/24/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -0.6% | 8.3% | 16.5% | 17.6% | 10.9% | 13.1% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.3 | 9.6 | 18.4 | 13.8 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.7 | N/A | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 1.3 | -4.9 | 20.4 | 27.3 | 18.0 | 12.0 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 2.7 | 23.0 | 29.5 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.9 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
BABY BOOMERS HAVE ABOUT $93 TRILLION, BUT IT WON’T ALL GO TO THEIR HEIRS. In the United States, some in younger generations perceive baby boomers as the generation that caught every financial break. They believe boomers benefitted from more affordable housing, lower tuition costs, and rising stock markets. When baby boomers look back, many recall facing significant economic headwinds during their working years, including double-digit mortgage rates, high inflation, and recessions.9
Regardless of the circumstances, baby boomers have accumulated a lot of wealth. When compared to previous generations, baby boomers have more wealth than older generations did at the same age, according to Richard Fry of Pew Research.10
| Household wealth by generation10 Median wealth of U.S. households headed by 58- to 76-year-olds in 2024 dollars | |
| Baby boomers in 2022 | $432,200 |
| Silent generation in 2001 | $335,900 |
| Greatest generation in 1983 | $185,300 |
In total, boomers have about $93 trillion saved and invested, according to 2026 research from a digital payments firm.11 That’s about three times the U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the value of all goods and services our country produced last year.12 The amount that is passed on to heirs will be far less for several reasons:
- $5 trillion in debt. Many baby boomers are still paying mortgages on their homes in retirement. Beyond housing, many also have credit card debt and auto, personal or business loans that will be repaid from their assets. 11
- Wealth is not distributed evenly. Of the $88 trillion remaining after debts are paid, about 33 percent is held by the top one percent of households. When this group is left out of the calculations, the remaining baby boomers have about $60 trillion.11
“…while excluding the top 1 percent makes the wealth estimate more realistic, it does not make the transfer democratic…most remaining wealth ($44 trillion) is still held by affluent boomers in the top 90 to 99 percent of households. In contrast, the bottom 90 percent of boomer households hold just $16 trillion,” according to the digital payments firm.11
- Retirement is expensive. A significant share of many households’ savings will be spent during retirement. In total, the researchers estimated that “$36 trillion will pass to younger generations over the next 20 years, equivalent to roughly $515,000 per inheriting household.”11
Estate planning is important for many reasons. It ensures your assets are distributed as you want them to be. In addition, an estate plan can directly affect the amount heirs receive by minimizing taxes, avoiding probate, and reducing the likelihood of inheritance disputes. If you don’t have an estate plan or you haven’t reviewed your plan recently, get in touch. We can help.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“We are cups, constantly and quietly being filled. The trick is, knowing how to tip ourselves over and let the beautiful stuff out.”13 – Ray Bradbury, Author
Sources:
1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_absorber
2 https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/how-america-joined-its-two-great-loves-cars-and-the-outdoors
3 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/systematicrisk.asp
4 https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/getting-started/asset-allocation
6 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-27-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%206.pdf
8 https://www.barrons.com/articles/rising-interest-rates-danger-markets-tips-215b867d? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-27-26-Barrons-Rising-Interest-Rates-Are-A-Danger%20-%208.pdf
The Markets
Rethinking expectations for inflation and artificial intelligence (AI).
It was a rough week for Wall Street. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) fell about 1.5 percent, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.8 percent, and the Dow posted its weakest weekly performance since late March, reported Naomi Buchanan of Barron’s.1 Here’s what happened:
- Price increases slowed. The week started with encouraging news. Price pressures eased in June, in part because of lower energy costs, according to the Consumer Price Index report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation was up just 3.5 percent year over year in June, which was significantly lower than May’s 4.2 percent.2 Investors welcomed the news because lower inflation made it less likely the Federal Reserve will raise rates to bring prices lower, reported Jeff Cox of CNBC.3
- The U.S.-Iran conflict resumed. Inflation relief was short-lived as hostilities between the United States and Iran ramped up, causing oil prices to rise significantly last week. “The average price of diesel fuel in the U.S. has increased again to more than $5 a gallon, according to the AAA, and the average price of gas is almost $4, returning to their highs before the June memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran,” reported Aram Roston of The Guardian.4
- Investors reassessed AI. Last week, a Chinese start-up company introduced a new AI open-weight model that was said to outperform even the most advanced models offered by American companies and do the work at a lower cost. That led investors to re-evaluate the outlook for AI. Nate Wolf of Barron’s explained, “Enterprises have increasingly used cheap open-weight models for simple tasks to save on token prices. But if [the Chinese AI model] can mimic advanced U.S. models at a fraction of the cost per token, it begs questions about the sustainability of the entire AI investment boom…”5
While many investors have been laser-focused on all things related to AI, other sectors of the market have been performing well. You don’t see it in the performance of the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 Index because technology stocks are very large and have an outsized impact on the Index. However, you can see it in the performance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index, which assigns an equal weight to every company.6 Joel Leon of Bloomberg reported:
“Even as chip stocks dragged the S&P 500 lower on Thursday, a majority of stocks in the benchmark rose, signaling healthy market breadth. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index finished at an all-time high on Thursday.”7 It’s a reminder of the value of diversification.
Last week, major U.S. stock indexes finished lower,8 and U.S. Treasuries gained value as yields declined. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved lower to end the week at 5.06 percent.9
Data as of 7/17/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -1.6% | 8.9% | 18.4% | 18.1% | 11.9% | 13.2% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -1.8 | 9.3 | 21.2 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 6.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.5 | N/A | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | -1.8 | -6.1 | 19.8 | 26.9 | 17.6 | 11.8 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 3.6 | 19.8 | 25.8 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.3 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
BLUE RIBBONS, BUTTER SCULPTURES, AND BIG MONEY. State fairs are famous for giant pumpkins, prize-winning livestock, and all kinds of deep-fried food on a stick. They’re also big business, drawing millions of visitors, supporting local economies, and celebrating American agriculture. See what you know about state fairs by taking this brief quiz.
- In 2025, the Texas State Fair said “howdy” to about 2 million visitors, but that was about 20 percent fewer than had attended in 2024. What reason did Fair officials say was responsible for the change?10
- A. The Texas-Oklahoma football game was on one of the Fair’s busiest days.
- B. The popular greased pig contest wasn’t scheduled for 2025.
- C. Fair officials no longer allowed food to be served on skewers.
- D. Corn dogs were limited to one per customer.
- Since 1911, the Iowa State Fair has featured the famous Butter Cow statue. “The Butter Cow starts with a wood, metal, wire and steel mesh frame and about 600 lbs. of low moisture, pure cream Iowa butter,” according to the Fair’s website. The cow could butter more than 19,000 slices of toast.11 How much is all that butter worth?12
- A. About $10,000
- B. About $20,000
- C. About $30,000
- D. About $40,000
- One state fair sold more than 330,000 cream puffs during its 2025 run.13 Which state has turned this dessert into a signature fair attraction?
- A. Minnesota
- B. California
- C. Pennsylvania
- D. Wisconsin
- One of America’s oldest state fairs traces its roots to 1841. “There an assembled 10,000-15,000 people heard speeches by notables and viewed animal exhibits, a plowing contest, and samples of manufactured goods for the farm and home,” according to the history of the Fair.14 Which state held the fair?
- A. New York
- B. Massachusetts
- C.Wyoming
- D. Nebraska
State fairs may be known for funnel cakes and Ferris wheels, but they also showcase people, products, and traditions that shape local communities. What’s your favorite part of your state’s fair?
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Farming looks mighty easy when your plow is a pencil, and you’re a thousand miles from the corn field.”15
– Dwight D. Eisenhower, Former U.S. President Answers: 1) a; 2) c; 3) d; 4) a
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources
1 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-071726?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-Barrons-Dow-Ends-Worst-Week%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-4-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-may-2026.htm
3 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html
4 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/16/us-gas-prices-rise-strait-of-hormuz
5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/moonshot-ai-alibaba-tech-stocks-189f80f2?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-Barrons-Moonshot-AIs-Latest-Model%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/08/market-equal-weight.asp or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-17/us-stock-index-futures-slide-as-jitters-grow-on-chip-selloff?srnd=homepage-americas or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-20-26-Bloomberg-US-Stocks-End-Week-Lower-%207.pdf
8 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?eafs_enabled=false
10 https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/state-fair-of-texas-2025-numbers-less-visitors/
11 https://www.iowastatefair.org/about/butter-cow
13 https://wistatefair.com/fair/original-cream-puffs
14 https://nysfair.ny.gov/about/fair-history
15 https://www.agdaily.com/lifestyle/10-iconic-farming-quotes-history/
The Markets
America’s wealth looks different than it did just a couple of generations ago.
A lot has changed since 1989. Back then, there were no smartphones or streaming services. There wasn’t an app for anything.1 The first digital camera arrived the previous year,2 and the first handheld global positioning system (GPS) became available in 1989.3 While technology began reshaping everyday life, another change began unfolding, too.
Between 1989 and 2022, after adjusting for inflation, the wealth held by families in the United States almost quadrupled. It rose from $52 trillion (in 2022 dollars) to $199 trillion, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).4 The composition of that wealth changed, too.
- Wall Street has become Main Street. More household wealth is invested in stocks than ever before. “Some 34 [percent] of US household wealth is now in stocks — the highest proportion on record,” reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. “These are obviously aggregate figures, and equity ownership is skewed towards higher-income households. Nevertheless, this is a sea change in the composition of America’s total wealth, which was dominated for years (even after the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008) by real estate.”5
- Retirement plans help grow household wealth. Years ago, a family’s wealth was largely tied to its home and, perhaps, a pension that would be paid by a company after retirement. Today, an increasing share of household wealth is in 401(k)s, IRAs, and brokerage accounts. Even people who have never thought of buying an individual stock may own thousands of companies through their workplace retirement plans. “In 2022, retirement assets and accrued Social Security benefits made up about 40 percent of [household] wealth,” reported the CBO.4
- Diversification matters more than ever. With stocks comprising a bigger share of household wealth, managing risk is essential. One of the best ways to do that is through diversification, which means owning different types of investments that respond differently to changing market conditions. The idea is that one asset may increase in value when another is losing value. While diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss, it plays an important role in long-term investment strategies.6
Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes finished higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground, largely due to the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, according to Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.7,8 Yields on mid- and longer-term U.S. Treasuries moved higher over the week.9
Data as of 7/10/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 1.2% | 10.7% | 20.6% | 19.8% | 11.6% | 13.5% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -1.4 | 11.3 | 22.9 | 16.1 | 5.7 | 7.1 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.6 | N/A | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 0.6 | -4.4 | 23.5 | 28.9 | 18.1 | 11.8 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 3.1 | 15.6 | 23.0 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 4.0 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THE WORLD CUP HAS PRODUCED SOME EYE-POPPING NUMBERS, and we’re not talking about the scoreboard.For example:
$713,000. The World Cup trophy is gilded with almost 11 pounds of 18-karat gold. In April of this year, the value of the gold would have been roughly $713,000, reported Phil Haunhorst via Yahoo Finance. The champions receive a gold-plated replica, while the original trophy stays with FIFA, which is the international governing body for soccer.10
6 million. That’s how manyspectators have packed into stadiums throughout the United States, Canada, and Mexico to watch the beautiful game, according to FIFA.11
$12.5 million. The country of every team playing in the tournament receives $12.5 million in qualification and preparation money, reported Maggie MacKenzie of Sports Illustrated.12
$16 million. The U.S. men’s national team won $16 million for making it to the round of 16. Since the U.S. men’s and women’s teams split all World Cup winnings, “The prize money will be split evenly between the 26 men on the U.S. roster and the 26 women who make next year’s U.S. roster for the 2027 Women’s World Cup, should the Americans qualify,” reported Jeff Kassouf of ESPN.13
33 million. Last week, more than 33 million viewers tuned in to watch the U.S. men’s national team play Belgium, making it the “most-watched soccer telecast in U.S. history,” reported Michael Schneider of Variety.14
$50 million. The prize for the team that lifts the World Cup trophy is $50 million.12 The winnings don’t go to the players, although they receive a share. The award goes to the winning nation’s soccer federation, which is the sport’s governing body in the country.15
$13 billion. This is the amount of revenue that “FIFA expects to have generated across the four-year cycle ending with this World Cup,” reported Brett Knight of Forbes. “Of that total, almost $9 billion would be from 2026, including $3.9 billion from broadcasting rights and more than $3 billion in hospitality rights and ticket sales, according to projections in the organization’s 2024 annual report.”16
The World Cup offers some unforgettable moments. It also offers some pretty impressive trivia.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“We didn’t underestimate them, but they were a lot better than we thought.”17
— Bobby Robson, Former professional soccer coach and player
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://medium.com/fbdevclagos/tech-timeline-30-years-and-beyond-1987-2017-8beef66255dc
2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_camera
3 https://www.geotab.com/blog/gps-satellites/
4 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60807
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-10/the-stock-market-and-a-phenomena-of-our-lifetimes? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Bloomberg-The-Stock-Market-And%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.investopedia.com/investing/importance-diversification/
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
8 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-magnificent-seven-9a8da693?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Barrons-The-Stock-Market-Cant-Afford%20-%208.pdf
10 https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/much-gold-hiding-world-cup-111438017.html
13 https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/49301582/us-men-women-get-equal-split-16m-world-cup-prize
14 https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/u-s-world-cup-loss-ratings-most-watched-soccer-telecast-1236806132/
16 https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettknight/2026/07/01/the-numbers-behind-the-2026-world-cup/ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-13-26-Forbes-The-Numbers-Behind%20-%2016.pdf
The Markets
The market spent the first half of 2026 floating like a butterfly.
The market slipped every punch during the first six months of 2026, and there were a lot of them: the Iran War, gyrating oil prices, rising inflation, changed interest rate expectations, employment concerns, and mounting national debt. Each issue stepped into the ring swinging and, while the market staggered occasionally, it recovered every time.
Teresa Rivas of Barron’s reported, “Bolstered by double-digit earnings growth, 2Q was the best quarter for the S&P 500 since the second quarter of 2020, and [we saw] the best first half of a year for the index since 2021.”1
Here are some issues investors are watching as we head into the second half of the year.
- Winning on points. The United States economy had some mixed data rounds, but it appears to be solid. “Higher energy prices, stubborn inflation and widening inequality all pose risks that could erode the country’s current advantage,” reported Michelle Fleury of BBC. “Even so, compared with many other advanced economies, the U.S. continues to look robust. Its combination of flexible markets, rapid investment, abundant energy, and tolerance for risk has helped it weather shocks that have strained its peers.”2
- AI prospects. Artificial-intelligence stocks have a shiny record, but will they prove out? Enthusiasm for AI and strong earnings lifted stocks to new highs, but the industry has been rocked by uncertainty. One issue is cost. The LLM Token Expenditure Index measures token price and usage. It doubled from December to May and is now down 20 percent from its May high, according to Jan-Patrick Barnert and Michael Msika as reported by Charles Riley of Bloomberg.3
The move can be interpreted in different ways. “One explanation for the recent decline is that AI companies are losing pricing power with increasingly cost-sensitive customers, and that expectations for an eventual AI bonanza could prove misplaced,” according to Barnert and Msika. “Another read is that total spend has roughly doubled since last year and cheaper tokens have expanded the market. This means that an index pause is simply digestion, while demand is real and [capital expenditure] is money well spent.”3
- A hostile crowd. An additional issue for AI companies is opposition to data center expansion. Over the first three months of 2026, more than 75 data-center projects valued at $130 billion were blocked or delayed because of grassroots protests. Many Americans dislike the energy demands, and environmental impacts of the enormous installations. “Public pushback is becoming a risk factor for AI companies and their shares,” reported Joe Light of Barron’s.4
- Fresh legs in the ring. A market rotation has begun. As June came to a close, technology stocks fell out of favor, and investors began to find value in other market sectors, including healthcare, industrials, and financials, reported Barron’s.5 In addition, “nervousness about AI valuations has seen investors turning away from U.S. stocks at the fastest pace since March…Investors turned to some international stocks instead, with Japanese equities seeing their biggest inflows in seven weeks…,” according to sources cited by Andre Janse Van Vuuren of Bloomberg.6
Last week, major U.S. stock indexes rose,7 and yields on mid- and longer-term U.S. Treasuries moved higher.8
Data as of 7/2/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 1.8% | 9.3% | 20.2% | 18.9% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 2.1 | 12.9 | 25.0 | 16.1 | 6.0 | 7.2 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.5 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 0.7 | -5.0 | 22.8 | 28.8 | 18.3 | 11.8 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 0.1 | 12.2 | 18.7 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT ROUTE 66? The United States turns 250 this year. It’s a remarkable milestone and one worth celebrating. Since the history of the United States is broad and varied, we focused this quiz on one iconic American highway: Route 66. The Economist described it like this:
“Though it began as a motley stitching of state and local roads…it quickly became the main route west, passing through eight states. Farmhands used it to flee the Dust Bowl; so did workers, many of them African-Americans from Texas and Oklahoma, who flocked to California’s booming industrial base after the second world war; merry holidaymakers traveled along it to Los Angeles…Services for drivers flourished, including [gas] stations, diners and motels, as did the small towns through which the route passed.”9
See what you know about the “Mother Road” by taking this brief quiz.
- Few highways capture the American imagination as Route 66 does. If you traveled all 2,400 miles, from one end of the highway to the other, what cities would you start and end in?9
- A. New York City and San Francisco
- B. Chicago and Santa Monica
- C. St. Louis and San Jose
- D. Detroit and Las Vegas
- In 1928, runners traveled the length of Route 66 as part of a coast-to-coast marathon. “…The grueling event was organized as a promotional stunt by sports agent C.C. ‘Cash and Carry’ Pyle. Of the 199 men who began the 84-day race, 55 finished it,” wrote Elizabeth Nix of History.com. The official race name was the Trans-America Foot Race. What did the press nickname it?10,11
- A. The Cash and Carry Classic
- B. The Blister Bowl
- C. The Footsore Follies
- D. The Bunion Derby
- In its heyday, Route 66 was known as “America’s Main Street.” The all-weather highway traveled the 35th parallel, minimizing exposure to ice and snow in winter and blistering heat in summer.12 What led to the highway’s demise?
- A. Rising prices during the 1970s oil crisis.
- B. The interstate highway system bypassed it.
- C. A series of earthquakes destroyed key segments.
- D. The rise of commercial air travel.
- A Marine Corps veteran wrote the song “(Get Your Kicks on) Route 66”. Over time it was sung by Nat King Cole, Bing Crosby, The Rolling Stones and other recording artists. What was the songwriter’s name?11
- A. Bobby Troup
- B. Woodie Guthrie
- C. Chuck Berry
- D. Allee Willis
Route 66 turns 100 this year, a noteworthy celebration that aligns with America’s 250th birthday. The iconic highway paved the way for modern Americans to answer Horace Greeley’s historic call to “Go West and grow up with the country”.13 And they did.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“The social, and especially the political institutions of the United States, have, for the whole of the current century, been the subject in Europe, not merely of curious speculation, but of the deepest interest. We have been regarded as engaged in trying a great experiment, involving not merely the future fate and welfare of this Western continent, but the hopes and prospects of the whole human race. Is it possible for a Government to be permanently maintained without privileged classes, without a standing army, and without either hereditary or self-appointed rulers? Is the democratic principle of equal rights, general suffrage, and government by a majority, capable of being carried into practical operation, and that, too, over a large extent of country?”14
– The New York Daily News, 1860
Answers: 1) b; 2) d; 3) b; 4) a
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-today-ai-rotates-sectors-health-care-industrials-financials-28819289 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-06-26-Barrons-Review-and-Preview%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy031el03po
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-03/investors-track-tokens-for-clues-on-ai-trade-s-next-move or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-06-26-Bloomberg-Investors-Track-Tokens%20-%203.pdf
4 https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-data-centers-backlash-stocks-8d564b5f or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-06-26-Barrons-Amerians-Hate-AI-Data-Centers%20-%204.pdf
5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-rotation-things-to-know-today-f366b0b4 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-06-26-Barrons-This-Market-Rotation-From-Tech%20-%205.pdf
6 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-02/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-06-26-Bloomberg-European-Stocks-Rally%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-06-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
9 https://www.economist.com/culture/2026/07/02/route-66-how-a-century-old-highway-helps-explain-america or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/07-06-26-Economist-Route-66-%209.pdf
10 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-American_Footrace
11 https://www.history.com/articles/8-things-you-may-not-know-about-route-66
12 https://www.history.com/articles/route-66-rise-decline-highway-system
13 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_West,_young_man
14 https://www.historians.org/sixteen-months/the-american-experiment/