Blog
The Markets
What are your expectations for inflation?
Inflation occurs when the prices of goods and services increase. Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation moved modestly higher from July to August. Prices increased 2.9 percent, year over year, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s long-term goal of 2 percent inflation. Overall, prices increased 0.4 percent, month over month, from July to August.1,2
Grocery prices rose faster than other prices. The cost of fresh fruits and vegetables rose 1.6 percent from July to August, led by tomato prices, which were 4.5 percent higher. The cost of meat also rose faster than headline inflation, up 1.0 percent month over month, with a 2.7 percent rise in the beef index. In contrast, the price of sweet rolls, coffee cakes, and doughnuts fell by 2.3 percent month over month, and egg prices remained steady.1
Why did food prices rise?
“Tariffs are a factor, but they are only one piece of the puzzle,” according to a restaurant-industry source cited by Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s. “Food costs are also climbing because of labor shortages in production and distribution, elevated transportation expenses, and weather events that disrupt harvests and livestock production.”3
Consumers anticipate prices may increase further, according to the University of Michigan’s September Consumer Sentiment Index, which was released last week.4
“Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 4.8 [percent], unchanged from August. Long-run inflation expectations moved up for the second straight month to 3.9 [percent] in September. This current reading is considerably lower than the 4.4% seen in April,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.4
Stock markets were undaunted by economic data.
Investors remained confident that weakness in the labor market would weigh more heavily in the Fed’s rate decision next week than inflation data would. “Markets have fully priced in a September cut and now anticipate three reductions this year, compared to two just weeks ago,” reported Indradip Ghosh of Reuters. 5
Market optimism pushed major U.S. stock indexes higher last week.6 Treasuries were mixed, with yields on the longest maturities of Treasuries ending the week near where they started it.7
Data as of 9/12/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 1.6% | 12.0% | 17.7% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 12.9% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.8 | 22.1 | 18.4 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.6 | 39.8 | 43.4 | 28.4 | 13.3 | 12.7 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.3 | 5.1 | 8.5 | -4.9 | 7.7 | 1.6 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
A SCARCITY OF READING. We live in an information-rich world where people spend hours perusing social media. There’s even a slang term to describe it: brainrot. The term “refers to material of low or addictive quality, typically in online media, that preoccupies someone to the point it is said to affect mental functioning,” according to the Merriam Webster dictionary.8
In the 1970s, Nobel Prize-winner Herbert Simon theorized that “the wealth of information means a dearth of something else: a scarcity of whatever it is that information consumes. What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention and a need to allocate that attention efficiently…”9
Reading appears to be suffering from a poverty of attention
In 2004, about 28 percent of the 10,000 people who participated in the government’s “American Time Use Survey” read print or digital books, perused magazines, or listened to audiobooks for the pleasure of it, according to a 2025 research paper published in iScience. Twenty years later, just 16 percent did.10
Falling literacy levels may affect the desire to read. The Program for The International
Assessment Of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) uses a 500-point scale to measure literacy and divides its assessment into six levels of literacy.12
- Below Level 1, Level 1: In 2023, 28 percent of U.S. adults, ages 16 to 65, scored at these levels, a 10 percent increase from a decade earlier.13
- Level 2. In 2023, 29 percent of U.S. adults scored at this level, down from 33 percent a decade earlier.13
- Levels 3, 4, and 5: In 2023, 44 percent of U.S. adults were at this level, down from 50 percent a decade earlier.13
Whencompared to the 31 countries and subnational economies that participated in the study, the U.S. ranked 14th in literacy.14
Reading skills affect economic growth
There is a significant relationship between reading and economic well-being, according to 2020 research conducted by Gallup and The Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy. Gallup’s Principal Economist Jonathan Rothwell reported, “Eradicating illiteracy would have enormous economic benefits. This analysis finds that getting all U.S. adults to at least a Level 3 of literacy proficiency would generate an additional $2.2 trillion in annual income for the country. That is 10 [percent] of the gross domestic product.”15
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Libraries have always seemed like the richest places in the world to me, and I’ve done some of my best learning and thinking thanks to them. Libraries and librarians have definitely changed my life, and the lives of countless other Americans.”16
– Barbara Bush, Former First Lady
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm [Report, Tables 1 and 2]
2 https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm
3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/food-price-inflation-tariffs-eggs-2a801707 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-15-25-Barrons-Food-Price-Inflation-Isnt-Going-Away-3.pdf
4 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu
6 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-15-25-Barrons-DJIA-SP-NASDAQ-6.pdf
8 https://www.merriam-webster.com/slang/brain-rot
9 https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/89879.Herbert_A_Simon
10 https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(25)01549-4
11 https://today.yougov.com/entertainment/articles/48239-54-percent-of-americans-read-a-book-this-year\
12 https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/piaac/measure.asp
13 https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/piaac/2023/national_results.asp
14 https://nces.ed.gov/whatsnew/press_releases/12_10_2024.asp
15 https://www.barbarabush.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/BBFoundation_GainsFromEradicatingIlliteracy_9_8.pdf 16https://www.azquotes.com/quotes/topics/librarian.html?p=12
The Markets
Was the jobs report good news or bad news for the stock market?
In financial markets, sometimes bad news is good. It looked like that might be the case last week. On Friday, the Employment Situation Summary was released. It showed U.S. businesses added just 22,000 jobs in August – well below expectations. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted 75,000 new jobs would be added. The unemployment rate ticked higher, moving from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent. 1,2
That was not good news for American workers. “The [employment data] will likely heighten concerns about the durability of the labor market…Accounting for the revisions in this report, employment growth in the last three months has averaged just 29,000. Payrolls have come in under 100,000 for four straight months, extending the weakest stretch of job growth since the pandemic,” reported Molly Smith of Bloomberg.3
At first, investors celebrated, and U.S. stocks moved higher. The bad news was good news because it increased the likelihood the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower the federal funds rate at its next meeting. When the Fed lowers the federal funds rate, rates on credit cards, home equity loans, and other types of loans typically move lower, too. Low rates inspire more spending and make it cheaper to borrow, which can stimulate economic growth and lift stock prices.4
As investors considered what a less robust job market might mean for economic growth, sentiment shifted. “Strong evidence the U.S. labor market is slowing rippled through Wall Street, driving stocks lower and bonds higher on concern the Federal Reserve will now have to rush to prevent further weakness. The sharp cooling triggered fears about a more pronounced jobs slowdown, sparking a flight to Treasuries, with two-year yields hitting the lowest level since 2022,” explained Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg.5
Investors may have recalled a late-August speech in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the U.S. labor market was in a “curious kind of balance” due to “a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”6
The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes gained over the week, despite dipping lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week lower.7 Treasury yields fell across all maturities.8
Data as of 9/5/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.3% | 10.2% | 17.8% | 18.4% | 13.9% | 12.7% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.6 | 20.0 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 5.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.1 | N/A | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 4.8 | 37.7 | 43.2 | 28.1 | 13.3 | 12.4 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -0.4 | 3.7 | 7.6 | -4.5 | 7.5 | 1.4 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
HOW MANY NEW JOBS DOES THE U.S. NEED TO KEEP UNEMPLOYMENT LOW? Over the past two decades, the unemployment rate in the United States has varied greatly. It spiked following the 2008 financial crisis (rising to 10 percent in October 2009) and again during the Covid-19 pandemic (rising to 14.8 percent in April 2020).9
| Unemployment rate (%) | |
| August 2025 | 4.3 |
| August 2023 | 3.7 |
| August 2021 | 5.1 |
| August 2019 | 3.6 |
| August 2017 | 4.4 |
| August 2015 | 5.1 |
| August 2013 | 7.2 |
| August 2011 | 9.0 |
| August 2009 | 9.6 |
| August 2007 | 4.6 |
| August 2005 | 4.9 |
Since late 2021, though, the unemployment rate has remained relatively low – hovering around four percent. From an economic perspective, that puts the U.S. at or near maximum employment. In general, the maximum employment rate for the U.S. is estimated to be 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent, according to Marios Karabarbounis of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.9,10
The number of new jobs needed to keep employment steady is called the “breakeven employment growth rate”. In January, Victoria Gregory and Alexander Bick of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that about 150,000 new jobs were needed each month to maintain a stable employment rate.11,12
Since the start of this year, immigration has fallen dramatically – and so has the estimate of the number of new jobs needed to keep the employment rate steady. That’s because “…the biggest swing factor in the breakeven growth rate is the population growth rate.” With population numbers falling, just 32,000 to 82,000 jobs are needed each month to keep employment at the current level.11,12
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Far and away the best prize that life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.”13
– Theodore Roosevelt, Former U.S. President
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
2 https://www.reuters.com/business/instant-view-us-job-growth-slows-sharply-august-unemployment-rate-ticks-higher-2025-09-05/ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Reuters-Instant-View-US-Job.pdf
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/us-employers-add-just-22-000-jobs-unemployment-rate-rises or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Bloomberg-Weak-US-Payroll-3.pdf
4 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010616/impact-fed-interest-rate-hike.asp
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=undefined or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Bloomberg-Stocks-Fall-As-Bleak.pdf
6 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Barrons-DJIA-SP-NASDAQ.pdf
9 https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
10 https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2025/eb_25-32
The Markets
Will the bull market in stocks continue?
There is always a diversity of opinion about whether stocks are headed higher or lower. Last week, investors were feeling more bearish than bullish about where the stock market may be headed over the next six months. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed:1
| Investor outlook | Week ending August 27, 2025 | Historic average |
| Bullish | 34.6% | 37.5% |
| Bearish | 39.4% | 31.0% |
| Neutral | 26.0% | 31.5% |
While investors who participated in the survey were leaning toward pessimism, some economists and analysts had a sunnier view of what might be ahead. They were optimistic about:
Strong company performance. Profits for companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have been growing steadily. From April through June of this year, earnings grew by about 11.9 percent. It was the third consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. In addition, analysts increased their estimates for earnings of S&P 500 companies over the July through September quarter, according to John Butters of FactSet.2
Solid consumer spending. The primary driver of the United States economy is consumer spending. Last week, data showed consumer spending rising. “Inflation ticked up slightly in July, but that didn’t stop shoppers from opening their wallets. Consumer spending grew by 0.3 [percent] last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday, the strongest gain in four months. The increase, fueled by rising compensation, shows households are still willing to spend even as inflation remains elevated,” reported Nicole Goodkind of Barron’s.3
In addition, some Americans may find their wallets are a little fatter next year when tax refunds are issued. In August, “…the IRS announced that, as part of its phased implementation of the OBBBA [One Big Beautiful Bill Act], it would not be adjusting W2 or 1099 forms for the current calendar year…This seemingly innocuous statement confirms that we will see an even larger crop of personal income tax refunds early in 2026 than was anticipated when the OBBBA was passed. These higher income tax refunds should work much like a new round of stimulus checks, adding to consumer demand and inflation pressures early next year,” wrote economist David Kelly.4
Lower borrowing rates. Many on Wall Street are optimistic the Federal Reserve will begin to lower the federal funds rate in September. Major financial firms “…now expect a 25-basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September following Chair Jerome Powell’s shift in tone at Jackson Hole toward rising risks in the labor market,” reported Rashika Singh of Reuters.5
It is impossible to know how the stock market will perform over the short term. That’s why it’s important to hold different types of investments in various asset class. Holding a well-allocated and diversified portfolio helps investors manage risk while pursuing financial goals.
Last week, major U.S. stock indexes moved lower.6 U.S. Treasuries rallied as yields declined on all but the longest maturities of Treasuries.7
Data as of 8/29/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | -0.1% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 13.0% | 12.6% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | -0.9 | 19.3 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.2 | N/A | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 2.9 | 31.3 | 36.2 | 25.6 | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.1 | 4.1 | 6.0 | -6.5 | 7.0 | 1.2 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT’S THE SECOND BIGGEST SPORTS LEAGUE IN THE WORLD? The National Football League is #1, but who is #2? Here’s a hint: it’s not Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, or the English Premier League (soccer). With $19 billion in revenue, the answer is the National College Athletic Association (NCAA), stated The Economist.8
“Hidden behind the pageantry of marching bands, fight songs and century-old rivalries with names like ‘the Backyard Brawl’ lies what is, in effect, the second-biggest sports league in the world (after the NFL)…In 2024 college sport generated twice as much revenue as the English Premier League. Nearly all that came from American football and men’s basketball. For decades the system was lucrative because the labor was free.”8
The economics of college sports is changing again this year.
Over the last few years, college athletes had the right to profit from their names, images and likenesses (NIL). For example, it’s estimated that Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning had NIL deals worth $6.8 million, while Livvy Dunne, a gymnast at Louisiana State University, had NIL earnings worth an estimated $4.1 million, according to Nate Cunningham of Sports Illustrated.9 (Until recently, college athletes gave up their NIL rights when they signed with a college sports team.)
This year, colleges and universities will begin paying their athletes directly. As of July 1, 2025, institutions of higher learning are allowed – but not required – to spend about $20.5 million on athletes, reported Dan Murphy of ESPN. That amount is expected to grow.10
“This new era will force athletic-department heads to act more like portfolio managers, balancing returns across a basket of sports. Many have indicated that they will mirror the recent federal court settlement. It allotted three-quarters of retroactive compensation to former football players, 15% to men’s basketball, 5 [percent] to women’s basketball and 5 [percent] to the rest,” reported The Economist.8
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“A teacher told my mother that I would never become successful, which illustrates the difficulty of long-run forecasting on inadequate data.”11
– Clive Granger, Nobel Prize-winning econometrician
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Sources:
[1] https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-02-25-AAII-What-Direction-Do-AAII-Members-1.pdf
2https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_082925.pdf or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-02-25-Earning-Insights-2.pdf
3 https://www.barrons.com/articles/pce-inflation-july-federal-reserve-interest-rates-66e4a5c5?mod=hp_LEDE_C_4 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-02-25-Barrons-Consumer-Spending-Comes-In-Strong-3.pdf
6 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-02-25-Barrons-Charts-6.pdf
8 https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/08/28/a-19bn-industry-is-about-to-pay-its-workforce-for-the-first-time or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-02-25-The-Economist-A-$19bn-Industry-8.pdf
9 https://www.si.com/college-basketball/highest-paid-college-athletes-via-nil-deals
[1]0 https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/45469454/after-house-settlement-approval-here-next
The Markets
Will the Fed lower rates?
Last week, in a much-anticipated speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said, “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation…Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”1
Investors celebrated and financial markets rallied.
“Powell’s speech sparked the strongest cross-asset rally since April…,” reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. On Friday, “The S&P 500 climbed 1.6 [percent], with tech megacaps rebounding. The Russell 2000 of small firms jumped about 4 [percent]. Two-year yields sank 11 basis points to 3.68 [percent]. Traders boosted bets on a Fed cut next month, pricing in an 85 [percent] chance of a move. The dollar fell.”2
Monetary policy – the steps the Fed takes to maximize employment and keep prices stable3 – can be:
- Restrictive when the federal funds rate is high enough to restrain economic activity and curb inflation.4
- Neutral when the federal funds rate is at a level that does not stimulate or restrain the economy.5
- Accommodative when the federal funds rate is low enough to stimulate economic activity and reduce unemployment.4
Recent economic data showing a slowdown in employment and an uptick in inflation complicate the upcoming rate-setting decision, reported Joseph E. Gagnon of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.5
When the Fed lowers the federal funds rate, the cost of borrowing moves lower as rates on home equity loans, auto loans, and credit cards typically follow the Fed. Lower borrowing costs may create opportunities for businesses to invest in new ventures and hire more workers. A rate cut also can boost consumer spending, reported Sarah Foster of Bankrate.6 The exception to this rule is mortgage loans. The rate for 30-year fixed mortgages typically tracks the benchmark 10-year Treasury note.7
Last week, after the Fed Chair’s speech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, and U.S. Treasuries rallied as yields moved lower, reported Karishma Vanjani of Barron’s.8
Data as of 8/22/25 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.3% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 13.1% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 0.6 | 20.3 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 5.3 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 3.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 0.0 | 27.7 | 34.3 | 24.1 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.3 | 2.9 | 6.7 | -6.3 | 7.2 | 1.7 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT FASHION? The fashion industry is an important part of the global economy. It employs 300 million people and is expected to have global revenue of $2 trillion by 2026, reported Elaine Ritch for Economics Observatory.9
Like all industries, fashion has hits and misses. There are trends that shine and trends that perplex. Consider Big Red Boots (BRBs), which were introduced at New York Fashion Week in 2023. The cartoon-style boots looked like they’d been pulled from Mario’s closet and retailed for $350. Their popularity was tempered by suction issues – the grippy rubber boots proved difficult to remove, reported Christian Allaire of Vogue.10
See what you know about fashion trends today, and in the past, by taking this brief quiz:
- The Communist Party reportedly does not approve of the latest fashion trend in China, but demand for a particular type of sun protection gear has been on the rise.11 What are Chinese women wearing to the beach?
- Glare goggles
- Sunuits
- Shade sleeves
- Facekinis
- People of a certain age may remember platform shoes as a disco-era wardrobe necessity. The 70’s weren’t the first time thick-soled shoes trended, though. In 16th century Venice, “chopines” – boots with platforms that were up to 20 inches tall – were popular.12 The boots were worn to:
- Strengthen ankles and calves.
- Provide protection in combat.
- Protect shoes and dresses from muck.
- Wade across shallow canals.
- In the 1960s, dresses made of an unusual material that was printed with geometric patterns became very popular.12 What were the dresses made of?
- Polyester
- Paper
- Chocolate
- Vinyl
- Which of the following is NOT an iconic fashion piece, according to Glam Observer?13
- Little black dresses
- Poodle skirts
- Denim jeans
- Trench coats
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“The best fashion show is definitely on the street. Always has been and always will be.”14
— Bill Cunningham, Photographer
Answers: 1) d; 2) c; 3) b; 4) b
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm
2 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-25-25-Bloomberg-Wall-Street-Has-Best-2.pdf
3 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/monetarypolicy.asp
5 https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/feds-september-dilemma
6 https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/how-federal-reserve-impacts-your-money/
7 https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/publications/housing-insights/rate-30-year-mortgage
8 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-082225/card/dow-marks-first-record-close-of-the-year-as-s-p-500-nabs-new-high-3FEYOjg5CcgmPAwTmvae or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-25-25-Barrons-Dow-Markets-First-Record-8.pdf
9 https://www.economicsobservatory.com/fast-fashion-what-are-the-true-costs
10 https://www.vogue.com/article/everyone-is-wearing-mschf-big-red-boots or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-25-25-Vogue-Why-Is-Everyone-10.pdf
11 https://www.economist.com/business/2025/08/21/chinas-hottest-new-look-the-facekini or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/08-25-25-Chinas-Hottest-New-Look-11.pdf
12 https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zd8rvwx
13 https://glamobserver.com/8-iconic-fashion-pieces-in-the-history-of-fashion/
14 https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/bill-cunningham-quotes