Blog
The Markets
The market completes a 180.
One of the most exciting driving sequences in movies may be the scene from Baby Driver when “Baby” (a reluctant getaway driver) slings a red Subaru into a narrow 180-degree turn, slides backward between obstacles, and immediately pivots into another 180-degree turn, all while perfectly in sync with the beat of his music.1
Since mid-February, the U.S. stock market has offered a similarly exciting ride.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) was closing in on a record high level (7,000) in late February. Then the U.S. military conflict with Iran began and markets drifted lower. The S&P 500 hit bottom in late March when talk of a ceasefire inspired a 180 in outlook and U.S. stocks headed in the other direction. The index recovered lost value incredibly quickly. On Tax Day, it closed above 7,000 for the first time, reported Martin Baccardax of Barron’s.2,3
There were three main drivers behind the remarkable recovery. These included:
- Enthusiasm about the prospect of peace. Investor optimism surged on the possibility of an end to the Middle East conflict. “The stock market has now delivered a year’s return in about two weeks. While that might not be quite as impressive as all summer in a day, it’s been enough to provide a genuine reset for investors. The ‘end’ of the Iran war spurred a market celebration this week, even if the conflict is nowhere near officially over,” reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s.4
Over the 12 trading days of April through last Friday, the Nasdaq Composite Index had a double-digit gain, while the S&P 500 was up more than 8 percent, reported Rivas.4
- Excitement – again – about artificial intelligence (AI). Concerns about AI capacity being overbuilt and worries that data centers might not prove profitable, have faded amid rising demand, reported Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway of Bloomberg.5
“…AI can just do more as the models get better (not just cheaper), and obtain new capabilities, and this improvement should also be seen as a source of new demand. If, for example, [a new AI product] is as amazing at cybersecurity as all the hype says, then I’d expect we’ll see a big surge in AI consumption from people who work on securing computer networks.”5
Investors’ appetite for AI is reflected in the performance of the S&P 500. Forty percent of its recent gains are owed to five of the biggest tech companies in the index, all are members of the Magnificent Seven, reported Baccardax.2
- A strong start to earnings season. Just 10 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported on their performance during the first quarter. Among that group, more than 80 percent have reported positive revenue and earnings surprises. A positive surprise occurs when a company does better than analysts expected. In the first quarter of 2026, many of the companies that have reported took in more money and were more profitable than analysts anticipated, according to John Butters at FactSet.6
Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher.7 In addition, yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.8
Data as of 4/17/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 4.5% | 4.1% | 34.9% | 19.7% | 11.4% | 13.0% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 2.6 | 9.4 | 36.5 | 14.7 | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 1.9 | 12.4 | 46.6 | 34.5 | 22.5 | 14.7 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -0.5 | 19.9 | 27.8 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.0 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THE INFRASTRUCTURE TEST. Recently, heavy storms in the Midwest and elsewhere have severely tested aging U.S. infrastructure. There have been significant failures in flood defenses, power grids, and transportation networks, reported Anna Skinner of Newsweek.9
Since 1998, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has evaluated infrastructure in the United States every two years. The authors of the 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure explained why the analysis is important:
“America’s infrastructure is the foundation on which our national economy, global competitiveness, and quality of life depend. While often taken for granted when it is working properly, every American household or business immediately feels the impact of just one inefficiency or failure in our built environment.”10
Poorly maintained infrastructure is costly. The ASCE found that “potholes damaging our vehicles, traffic delays leading to lost productivity and increased costs for products, aging water lines leading to spiking water rates, etc. – costs each American household $2,700 per year.”11
How well is the United States maintaining its infrastructure?
Themost recent Report Card for America’s Infrastructure graded 18 categories of infrastructure, and the grades weren’t good. The lowest marks were for systems that affect millions of Americans: a D- for transit and a D for stormwater.10
Overall, U.S. infrastructure earned a ‘C’, meaning mediocre condition; requires attention. Here’s how America’s infrastructure fared:10
| Aviation D+ | Hazardous Waste C | Roads D+ |
| Bridges C | Inland waterways C- | Schools D+ |
| Broadband C+ | Levees D+ | Solid waste C+ |
| Dams D+ | Ports B | Stormwater D |
| Drinking water C- | Public Parks C- | Transit D- |
| Energy D+ | Rail B- | Wastewater D+ |
For investors, deteriorating infrastructure can weigh on local economies, raise business operating costs, and (when spending accelerates) create opportunities for growth in industries that benefit.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other.”12― Mark Twain, Author
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
2 https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-war-oil-record-f69d42a1?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Barrons-The-S&P-Just-Surged%20-%202.pdf
3 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
4 https://www.barrons.com/articles/peace-earnings-ai-stocks-new-records-74056d11?mod=hp_LEDE_B_1_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Barrons-Peace-Earnings-and-AI%20-%204.pdf
5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-13/you-don-t-hear-much-about-the-ai-overbuild-anymore or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Bloomberg-You-Dont-Hear-Much-About%20-%205.pdf
7 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-20-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf
11 https://infrastructurereportcard.org/2025-infrastructure-report-card-one-year-later/
12 https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/923-always-do-what-is-right-it-will-gratify-half-of
The Markets
Sunny with a chance of rain.
Last week, news of a two-week pause in the Middle East conflict was like a sunny day. Investors celebrated and the relief rally lifted U.S. stocks higher. “The cease-fire announced on Tuesday led to the best day for the stock market in almost exactly a year,” reported Avi Salzman of Barron’s.1
On Friday, though, some clouds appeared on the horizon. U.S. economic data and Middle East damage assessments gave investors pause, and the market’s advance slowed as they considered the potential impact of:
- Rising inflation. The Consumer Price Index showed that prices surged from February to March. Gasoline and fuel oil prices were up 18.9 percent and 44.2 percent, respectively.2
| March 2026 2 | February 20263 | January 20264 | December 20255 | |
| Headline inflation | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| Core inflation | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
The good news was that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained relatively steady. “There was no doubt that the spike in gasoline prices was going to drive up price growth in March, but the latest data show the Iran war’s effects on inflation were largely contained to energy, at least for now,” reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s.6
- An all-time low for consumer sentiment. Consumer optimism bottomed out in early April, falling 11 percent from month to month and 9 percent from year to year.7 Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu wrote:
“Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20 [percent] and is now 6 [percent] below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11 [percent], with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values.”7
There is a caveat. Most of the interviews for the survey’s initial monthly reading were conducted before the ceasefire announcement. If the ceasefire holds, sentiment could improve over the month.7
- Energy infrastructure damage assessments. With a two-week ceasefire underway, “…people are waking up to the fact that the war will cause lasting damage…Most obviously, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is now a fact, and something of which it is taking full advantage. Secondly, a lot of energy infrastructure in the region has been damaged since the war erupted, and some of it will take time to repair,” reported Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times.8
Despite Friday’s retreat, major U.S. stock indices finished the week higher.9 In addition, yields on most maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved lower over the week.10
Data as of 4/10/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 3.6% | -0.4% | 29.4% | 18.4% | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 5.0 | 6.6 | 38.7 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 6.7 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 2.3 | 10.3 | 50.7 | 33.7 | 22.5 | 14.3 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | -3.7 | 20.5 | 32.4 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 5.2 |
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
THERE’S A NEW TYPE OF RETIREMENT ACCOUNT AND IT’S FOR KIDS. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which passed into law last summer, created a new type of retirement account known as the “Trump account”. Here’s what you need to know:
Who is eligible?
These accounts can be opened for any child who is younger than 18-years-old and has a Social Security number. To qualify the child must be age 17 or younger for the entire calendar year in which the account is opened, reported the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).11
Who can contribute?
The U.S. Treasury will contribute $1,000 to the accounts of children born in the U.S. between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, reported the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRRBC).12
Additional contributions (up to $5,000 each year) can be made by:11,12
- Parents,
- Grandparents,
- Account beneficiaries,
- A parent or child’s employer (up to $2,500 that counts toward the annual limit),
- Charitable organizations (not subject to the $5,000 limit), and
- Federal, state, and local governments (not subject to the $5,000 limit).
Are contributions taxable?
It depends on who makes the contribution. Parents, grandparents, and other individuals do not get a tax break for contributions. However, contributions made by employers or other entities are made on a pre-tax basis, according to the CRRBC.12
When can the money be withdrawn?
These accounts are intended to help young Americans fund their retirements. As a result, investment choices are limited and contributions cannot be withdrawn before the beneficiary reaches age 18. At that point, the account is subject to the same contribution rules as traditional IRAs, which means the account holder will owe taxes on any distributions, reported SCFR.11
How much could an account be worth at retirement?
It’s difficult to know. The account value will depend on how much is contributed and how investments perform over time. The U.S. government’s website estimates account values at various ages, assuming an average annual return of for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.13 The average return is about 10.6 [percent], which reflects the returns from 1957 through 2025, reported J.B. Maverick of Investopedia.14 Here’s what they estimate:
| Contribution amount of $1,000 plus: | Account value at age 18 | Account value at age 27 | Account value at age 55 |
| $0 each year | $6,000 | $15,000 | $243,000 |
| $250 each year | $19,000 | $51,000 | $878,000 |
| $5,000 each year | $271,000 | $742,000 | $13,000,000 |
Is it better to contribute to a Trump account, a Roth IRA, or a 529 plan? It all depends. While the free money available to newborns is attractive, other types of accounts may offer greater flexibility and better tax advantages, reported Abby Schultz of Barron’s.15
If you would like to learn more about ways to help young Americans save and invest for the future, please get in touch.
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best is now.”16 – Oxford Treasury of Sayings and Quotations
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/war-inflation-stock-market-df2a811a?mod=hp_LEDE_B_1 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-War-Inflation-%201.pdf
2 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
3 https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-2-4-percent-over-year-ended-february-2026.htm
5 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm#
6 https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/inflation-report-cpi-data-march-fed-rate-cuts/card/inflation-wasn-t-as-bad-as-feared-why-it-won-t-make-the-fed-s-life-easier–KY53ecxD2vNCA3qsUkA9 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-Inflation-Wasnt-as-Bad%20-%206.pdf
7 https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-UoM-Survey-of-Consumers%20-%207.pdf
8 https://www.ft.com/content/73deaed8-4458-426f-955c-00f5be73ce69 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-25-Financial-Times-Surveying-The-Middle-Easts%20-%208.pdf
9 https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%209.pdf
11 https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/ins-and-outs-new-trump-kids-accounts
12 https://crr.bc.edu/trump-accounts-a-primer-for-parents/
13 https://www.trumpaccounts.gov
14 https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
15 https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-accounts-advantages-disadvantages-603f9f82? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Barrons-Trump-Accounts-May-Come%20-%2015.pdf
16 Ratcliffe, Susan, Oxford Treasury of Sayings and Quotations, October 13, 2011 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-13-26-Oxford-Treasury-of-Sayings%20-%2016.pdf
The Markets
The first three months of 2026 felt a bit like summer school.
In summer school, students learn a lot in a short amount of time. A normal semester gives students about 15 to 17 weeks to learn, but summer classes cram all that information into 6 to 8 weeks. The lessons move quickly and it can be hard to keep up.
That’s what the markets felt like in the first quarter of the year. Investors had to take in a lot of new information very quickly to keep up with economic data, interest rate changes, and global events. Here is a brief recap:
- Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) tempered. “Technology stocks have been pummeled since peaking in October amid growing concern about whether hefty spending on artificial intelligence will pay off, while more recently the escalating war in Iran further dented risk appetites,” reported Alexandra Semenova of Bloomberg.1
- Investors looked past geopolitics – until they didn’t. Geopolitical upheaval has been a hallmark of 2026. We’ve seen a United States military incursion into Venezuela, strong talk about the U.S. invading Greenland and Cuba, and policy choices that have reshaped global alliances and rewired the world economy.2,3 Investors took it all in stride until recently.
“The world and the markets changed on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran. In the opening days, investors believed the war would be brief…Over a month has passed, and not only is the war continuing and the Strait still closed, but there has also been significant damage to a key LNG facility in Qatar and a pair of major aluminum production plants,” reported Tom Lauricella of Morningstar.4
- Expectations for rate hikes instead of rate cuts. In 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the federal funds rate three times. At the start of this year, with inflation closing in on the Fed’s target and employment softening, market analysts anticipated the Fed would continue to lower the rate in 2026, reported Sarah Hanson of Morningstar.5
That’s no longer the case. “Economies around the world are coping with an energy shock that has revived inflation worries, opened the door to interest rate hikes instead of cuts, and raised concerns about slowing economic growth,” reported Lauricella.4
- U.S. Treasury yields rose. Before the Middle East conflict began, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury (a benchmark for mortgage rates) moved briefly below 4 percent. After military action began, the yield moved higher and finished at 4.35 percent last week.6
- Government debt climbed. “The United States just marked another unfortunate milestone: surpassing $39 trillion in national debt. This level of debt is more than the economic output of China and the entire Eurozone, combined. As a percentage of GDP, our debt levels are close to the level of debt after World War II. Worse still, U.S. debt is accelerating relative to history; put another way, we are adding debt faster than ever,” reported the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.7
- Companies continued to perform well. Publicly traded companies have proved nimble, adapting to the rapid pace of political and economic change. During the last three months of 2025, in aggregate, companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) reported earnings growth of 14.0 percent. It was the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth, reported John Butters of FactSet.8
Early last week, the S&P 500 was on the brink of correction, down 9.1 percent (a 10 percent decline signals a correction) when it rebounded. Investor optimism about an early end to the Middle East conflict, along with unexpected economic data showing strong employment gains for March and improved activity in the manufacturing sector drove stocks higher.9,10 The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ended the week at 4.91 percent.6
Data as of 4/3/26 | 1-Week | YTD | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 3.4% | -3.8% | 16.1% | 16.9% | 10.1% | 12.3% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.8 | 1.5 | 24.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 6.2 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.3 | N/A | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| S&P GSCI Gold Index | 3.4 | 7.8 | 47.8 | 32.8 | 22.0 | 14.4 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 2.3 | 25.1 | 28.3 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 5.9 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, S&P GSCI Gold Index, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends. The three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
IS IT AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE OR ISN’T IT? On April 1, it can be difficult to tell truth from fiction. Brands get bold, headlines get weird, and even your most trustworthy friends might be in on the joke. Here’s a challenge. Read through these short descriptions of news stories. Two are classic April Fool’s pranks designed to trick, delight, or confuse. One is real. Think you can spot it?
Story 1: The last days of paper currency
“The days of pulling a crumpled $20 bill out of your wallet may be numbered. The U.S. Treasury has officially greenlit a sweeping monetary overhaul that will replace all paper currency with a combination of government-issued cryptocurrency and physical gold coins by 2027. The plan calls for a full phase-out of paper money in favor of two new official forms of payment: TrumpCoin, a blockchain-based digital currency, and a line of gold coins embossed with the president’s likeness…,’” reported Laura Beck of GoBanking Rates.com.11
Story 2: AI agents hire humans
There’s a new job board online. While it looks a lot like other websites that connect freelance talent to companies that need it, there’s a big difference. Instead of humans looking for human help, this website is for AI agents that need human help, explained Reece Rogers of Wired.12 The company’s website states: AI needs your body. Get paid when agents need someone in the real world.
Story 3: Pants that improve your golf game
For years, [a top golf brand] has helped golfers improve their game. It offers insights on every club and every shot. Its rangefinder factors in wind, slope, and atmospheric pressure. In April, the company introduced smart pants, an innovation that continuously monitors players’ key performance indicators as they traverse a course. The biometric trousers track “heart rate variability, stress levels, and first-tee anxiety,” according to the company.13
While smart golf pants may be on the horizon, they’re not here yet. The U.S. currency change is also April Fool’s mischief. The fact is that AI agents really are hiring humans to complete real-world tasks!
What was your favorite April Fool’s joke this year?
WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT
“There is nothing in the world so irresistibly contagious as laughter and good humor.”14― Charles Dickens, Author
* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Sources:
1 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/rout-in-big-tech-stocks-sends-a-signal-that-has-preceded-gains or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Bloomberg-Big-Tech-Stocks-Rout%20-%201.pdf
2 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2026-03-22/iran-war-trump-is-making-america-weaker-and-stronger or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Bloomberg-Trump-Is-Making-America%20-%202.pdf
3 https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/05/world/greenland-cuba-iran-trump-warning-intl
4 https://www.morningstar.com/markets/6-charts-that-define-first-quarter-markets
5 https://www.morningstar.com/markets/whats-next-fed-2026
7 https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-united-states-is-adding-to-the-national-debt-faster-than-ever/
8 https://insight.factset.com/earnings-insight-infographic-q4-2025-by-the-numbers
9 https://www.barrons.com/articles/bull-market-stocks-wall-street-a07d4b80? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Barrons-This-Market-Has-Charged%20-%209.pdf
10 https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-manufacturing-rebound-oil-shock-risks-e7f70656? or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/04-06-26-Barrons-US-Maufacturing-Rebound%20-%2010.pdf
12 https://www.wired.com/story/i-tried-rentahuman-ai-agents-hired-me-to-hype-their-ai-startups/